Huitong.com, January 20th – Thursday (January 19th) The European Central Bank has stabilized as scheduled, reaffirming that QE will continue until the inflation target is achieved. However, at the subsequent press conference, President Draghi did not seem to have Given any "heavy information", the wording of the speech has changed little before, basically in line with market expectations. On Friday, China's fourth-quarter GDP data will be released, and the market will usher in the “final exam” of the Chinese economy. In addition, the US President-elect Trump will officially take office the next morning. Please pay attention to the relevant reports of Huitong.com.



Important financial data and major events that need attention on Friday (January 20) include:
1 09:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen speaks on "economic prospects and monetary policy behavior" 2 10:00 China's fourth quarter GDP annual rate 3 15:00 Germany December PPI monthly rate 4 17:30 UK December seasonally adjusted retail sales Monthly rate 5 21:30 Canada December CPI monthly rate, Canada November retail sales monthly rate 6 22:00 Federal Reserve 2017 FOMC voting committee Huck at the New Jersey Bankers Association on the economic outlook 7 days 01:00 US President Rump officially held the inauguration ceremony 8 times 02:00 US oil drilling data for the week ending January 20

[Overnight market news review]
1 [US Finance Minister: 3%-4% growth rate is reasonable and sustainable, worry about debt problems]
On January 20th, Beijing time, US Secretary of State Nuchin said at a congressional hearing to elaborate on issues such as economy, debt, dollar, tax reform, regulation, trade, and sanctions. Nuchin believes that 3%-4% of the economic growth rate is reasonable and sustainable; and the US President-elect Trump is worried about US debt; in addition, the long-term strength of the US dollar is very important.

2 [HSBC: There is only one direction for the US dollar in 2017: up! 】
HSBC recently said that Trump could not only want to have a weak dollar, but also want to implement a trade protectionist policy. David Bloom, global currency strategist at HSBC, said the dollar will be boosted when investment returns to the world's largest economy.

3 [Falh: There is no need to extend the production reduction agreement, the crude oil equilibrium price is 50-100 US dollars]
On January 19th, Beijing time, Saudi Energy, Industry and Minerals Minister Falih delivered a speech. Falih said that the oil market is likely to achieve a balance in the first half of this year, and if the market returns to equilibrium, there is no need to extend the production reduction agreement to the whole year. Falih believes that the equilibrium price of crude oil is in the range of 50-100 US dollars / barrel.

4 [America's EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.347 million barrels in the week, and US oil and oil oil fluctuated in a short period]
At 3:00 Beijing time on Friday (January 20), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing that the US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.347 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 13, which was higher than the expected value of 31,200 barrels; As of January 13th, EIA gasoline inventories increased by 5.915 million barrels, an increase of 2.352 million barrels higher than the expected and the previous value of 5.023 million barrels; after the data was released, the US oil cloth shocked short-term.

5 [The new female party leader of the Republican Party debuts]
On Thursday (January 19), the Republican National Committee of the United States elected a female Republican leader. The little-known Michigan Republican Ronna Romney McDaniel was elected on Thursday as the new Republican National Committee chairman. Members of the Republican National Committee from all over the United States gathered in Washington before Trump became president of the United States.

[List of major global markets]

Stock market <br>China, January 19 news, Thursday, the two cities opened lower, the market sentiment continued to slump, the pre-holiday effect appeared, the oversold stocks gradually stabilized and rebounded, the two cities basically maintained a sideways volatility, the afternoon index has some Falling back, lack of hot spots, most of the sectors have fallen back, follow-up stocks are only slightly higher in the case of leading gains, the overall offensive sentiment is weak, late, the Shanghai index once fell below 3100 points, followed by the word head, oil and other protection The strong pull index, military mixed reform continued to slump, the two cities oscillated to close.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.38% at 3101.30 points, and the GEM reported 1844.14 points, down 0.09%. Before the holiday, the funds continued to be tight. The two cities still have no change in the amount today. It is expected that the probability of obvious market conditions before the holiday is low. Some intraday analysis believes that the GEM rebounded as a pioneer in the daily limit, which stimulated the market rebound, but followed the trend of individual stocks and then fell back. The continued poor index fell, the willingness to catch up with the funds was not strong, and the disk-making effect was not good. Hotspot main line.

For European stocks, the FTSE Pan-European 300 Index closed down 0.12% to 1432.23 points. The European STOXX 600 closed down 0.06% to 362.85 points. Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.02% at 11596.89 points. The French CAC 40 index closed down 0.25% to 4,841.14 points. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.54% to 7208.44 points.

In the US stock market, the three major US stock indexes closed down 0.3% on the eve of Trump's “Inauguration Day”: the S&P 500 index closed down 8.20 points, or 0.36%, to 2263.69 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 72.32 points, or 0.37%, to 19732.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 15.57 points, or 0.28%, to 5540.08 points.

Futures <br> Crude oil, US crude oil March futures electronic trading rose 0.28 US dollars, or 0.54%, to 52.17 US dollars per barrel, oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, but the increase in US crude oil inventories limited the rebound of oil prices from a week low, before The IEA said that oil market supply is already tightening before OPEC and other oil-producing countries cut production agreements take effect.

The IEA said that although it is “premature” to assess whether OPEC members have complied with the production reduction agreement, the commercial oil inventories of developed countries decreased for the fourth consecutive month in November, and it is expected to decrease further in December. The rise in the dollar has limited the rise in oil prices. According to data from the US Energy Information Association (EIA), crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week due to a sharp drop in production at refineries. After the data was released, the oil price fell to a low level.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Administrator Fatih Birol said in Davos, Switzerland, he expects US shale oil production to increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day in 2017. The International Energy Agency has sharply raised its 2016 demand growth forecast and said the data suggests that demand growth has led to a slow tightening of global oil market supply.

At 0:00 on January 20, Beijing time, the US Energy Information Administration released data showing that the US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.347 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 13, which was higher than the expected value of 31,200 barrels, and gasoline inventories increased by 5.915 million barrels. Higher than expected 2.352 million barrels and the previous value of 5.023 million barrels; refined oil inventories fell by 968,000 barrels, expected to increase by 457,400 barrels, the previous value increased by 8.356 million barrels. Oklahoma's Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 12.74 million barrels, falling for the second consecutive week, with an expected increase of 118,500 barrels, a decrease of 579,000 barrels.

In terms of gold, the US February gold futures electronic trading closed down 0.9% to $1201.50. The gold price stabilized on January 19, erasing the earlier decline, as the dollar and US bond yields narrowed. Prior to this, the US economic data was strong, and Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen made a speech in support of the gradual rate hike, putting pressure on the gold price.

The stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims data further confirms the view that the US economy is strong enough to provide a basis for raising interest rates. Driven by this data, the US dollar reversed the recent decline, and the US 10-year bond yield hit the highest since January 3. A stronger dollar makes gold denominated in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Rising interest rates mean that Treasury prices will fall and yields rise, making US Treasury bonds more attractive to investors seeking safe-haven assets.

Investors will also pay attention to Trump's inauguration speech on Friday. During his campaign, he promised to implement a tax cut and increase policy, but threatened to introduce protectionist policies, which stimulated the safe haven demand for gold.

In addition to the above crude oil and gold, Huitong.com also stocks more commodities for you as follows: rebar fell 0.1%, hot rolled coil closed up 0.03%; coke and thermal coal closed down 0.7%, 0.2%, coking coal It rose by 0.04%; iron ore closed down by 0.2%.

Foreign exchange <br> The US dollar rose against most major currencies on Thursday, as strong employment and property market data confirmed strong growth in the US economy, but the dollar fell against the euro. After the European Central Bank President Draghi’s press conference, the euro weakened. Draghi pointed out that inflationary pressures are not strong and Europe needs further monetary policy support. During the speech, the euro fell below $1.06 against the US dollar. Draghi said that the economic recovery in the euro zone was "due to the sluggish structural reforms," ​​saying that "very large-scale" monetary policy stimulus measures are still needed.

The euro rebounded as investors carefully analyzed the statement and realized that the policy had not changed. In late New York, the euro rose 0.25% against the dollar to $1.0658. The US dollar kept rising throughout the day, maintaining a small uptrend against the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen, boosted by strong US initial jobless claims and housing starts data. The dollar rose to a high of 115.29 yen on January 13th as investors expected the dollar to rise further. In late New York, the dollar rose 0.15% to 114.82 yen.

The dollar rose 0.4% against the Canadian dollar to $1.332. The US dollar index rose 0.25% to 101.170.

Onshore, the RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8750 yuan at 23:30 Beijing time, down 318 points from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 4.974 billion US dollars to US$20.94 billion.

[International Finance News]

["Fed News Agency" Hisenset team believes that the Fed is not taboo to comment on the Republican policy agenda]
Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen once again stressed that the central bank does not belong to any party and only pays attention to the public interest. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali has publicly stated that he will launch a study focusing on the gap between the rich and the poor, and he also appealed to the United States to accept More immigrants to boost the economy, Philadelphia Fed President Huck and Dallas Fed President Kaplan have similar remarks; in addition, Fed Governor Brainer also said this week that he should be wary of short-term tax and spending plans to make inflation too fast, thus The risk of forcing interest rates, these statements may cause Fed officials to conflict with the Trump administration.

[The British Prime Minister Teresa May: The financial services industry is of great value to the UK economy]
People must have confidence in the market and enterprises; value financial services in London; have started dialogue with some countries on the FTA; have had a positive dialogue with the banking industry on Brexit, and hope to leave the financial services industry in London; Responsible behavior; (when asked to weaken the pound): Other data indicate that the UK's economic fundamentals remain strong.

[Famous financial website Forexlive quickly commented on the European Central Bank President Draghi conference]
Draghi said that the European Central Bank will observe whether the recent reconciliation of inflation is a transitional, and there is no convincing indication that inflation is on the rise, basically ignoring the recent strong eurozone reconciliation inflation performance, this statement against the euro Cause an impact.

[Draki's wording is in line with expectations, the US data fell to 1.06 in the euro)
The European Central Bank Draghi held a press conference in New York on January 19, saying that QE will continue until inflation meets the target path. If the outlook deteriorates, it can expand the stimulus; inflation has increased, but the economy still has downside risks; the speech is worded No change compared with the previous one, basically in line with market expectations.

[German Finance Minister 朔Ibler: We will respect Trump, but we cannot share certain opinions]
If the IMF does not participate, we need to consider new Greek aid projects; we will respect Trump, but we cannot share certain opinions; we believe that the United States will remain a reliable partner; considering the Baltic issues, the United States must be reliable; The United States will fulfill its obligations.

[European central bank maintains stability as scheduled, reaffirming that QE will continue until the inflation target is achieved]
In the latest monetary policy resolution announced by the European Central Bank on January 19, as the market expects to maintain three major interest rates: the deposit rate will remain at -0.40%, the main refinancing rate will remain at zero, and the marginal lending mechanism interest rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, it stated that it will continue to purchase 80 billion euros of bonds each month until the end of March 2017.

[Reuters comments on US initial jobless claims data last week]
The number of jobless claims in the US as of January 14 fell to 234,000, lower than the expected value of 252,000, and lower than the previous value of 235,000, indicating that the US labor market is further tightening; as of last week, the US initial jobless claims The data has been below the threshold of 300,000 for 98 consecutive weeks, the longest time since 1970, and the Ministry of Labor said there is no special factor.

[Saudi Energy Minister Falih: Saudi sovereign wealth fund will invest overseas]
Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East; the target assets of sovereign wealth funds are 2 trillion US dollars; Saudi sovereign wealth funds will invest overseas; privatization is the key to the future.

[French "World News" poll: French presidential candidate Le Pen support rate rose to the first place]
A poll conducted by the polling agency Ipsos Sopra Steria for Cevipof and Le Monde shows that Le Pen, the leader of the French Nationalist Party’s National Front, has a support rate of 25%-26%, and Republican candidate Fillon’s support rate is 23%. 25%. In mid-December 2016, Fillon also led Le Pen with a support rate of approximately 25% with a support rate of approximately 28%.

[IEA monthly report five major points of view]
1 The global oil market is slowly tightening due to increased demand;
2Upgraded 2017 global oil demand forecast to 9.7 million barrels per day;
3OPEC supply declined in December, and the rate of decline in January is expected to accelerate;
The agreement between 4OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers is still in the “observation period”, and it is too early to judge the implementation of the agreement;
5 US oil production will rebound under the leadership of shale oil, due to increased exploration drilling activities, and the operation of oil wells is more efficient.

[Domestic financial news]

[Zheng Xinghai, Vice Chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission: The biggest risk this year in the financial industry]
The biggest risk this year is in the financial industry. China usually responds quickly to financial risks; the economy is undergoing reforms and will gradually improve; the US will regard China as its largest export market; China is not eager to join the MSCI Global Index; China And MSCI has different views on the role of index futures.

[Domestic three bitcoin platforms shut down leveraged capital allocation business]
According to reports, industry insiders said that the so-called illegal financing of the financing business, in fact, refers to leveraged capital. Bitcoin China, the currency line, the fire currency network and other three bitcoin exchanges, under the supervision of the big stick, have now stopped related leverage business.

[Xinjiang enterprise IPO can enjoy the "green channel" of "reporting immediately, reviewing and issuing"
According to the "Xinjiang Economic News" news, Xinjiang enterprises will be listed on the first listing and the new three boards will be eligible for the "new report on the immediate report, trial and release" green channel policy. In early January 2017, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region People's Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly signed the "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on the Role of Capital Markets to Further Support Xinjiang's Economic and Social Development" in Beijing. The agreement includes the above green channel policy and other content.


Huijin market broadcast:

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.38% at 3101.30 points, the GEM pointed to 1844.14 points, down 0.09%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 72.32 points, down 0.37% to 19732.40 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 15.57 points, down 0.28. %, reported 5,540.08 points, crude oil rose 0.28 US dollars, or 0.54%, to 52.17 US dollars per barrel, gold futures closed down 0.9%, to 1201.50 US dollars, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 101.170.