â—† The UK wants to withdraw from the EU institutions in a "net Brexit" way, thus recovering a series of lost sovereignty from the EU â—† If the UK is willing to leave the European institutions in a “clean-out†manner, its influence on the European continent will decline and the status of the “European Bridge†will be weakened. â—† The final decision on how the UK will be "Brexit" and "Brexit" after the British status, can't just look at what the UK says, but also how the EU says British Prime Minister Teresa May made his first statement on the "Brexit" negotiations between Britain and the EU on January 17th, emphasizing that Britain will carry out "hard Brexit" and vowed to take back border control from the EU to restrict entry into the UK. The number of European immigrants. Although the way the UK will "Brexit" will depend on the difficult British-European negotiations, if the UK breaks away in a "clean-out" way, its influence on the European continent will decline, "European Bridge" The status may be weakened. "Brexit Road Map" released The 12 main goals set out by Mei Shou on a similar date include increasing the certainty of the UK as much as possible, regaining legislative and judicial sovereignty from the EU, strengthening British domestic unity, safeguarding British citizenship in the EU and EU citizens, and countries outside the EU. Conduct trade negotiations, etc. This is the clearest statement made by the UK on how to "Brexit" so far. One of the most interesting points in Mei’s speech is that the UK will not stay in the European Common Market after withdrawing from the EU, that is, seeking “hard Brexitâ€. For the first time, it was clearly declared that the United Kingdom completely ruled out the "soft Brexit" (ie, leaving the common market at the expense of giving up part of the border sovereignty and conditionally allowing EU immigration to enter the country) supported by some British politicians. In his speech, Mei stressed that if the UK does not leave the common market, it will not be truly "Brexit." She said that the UK will not seek to sign any agreement to allow the UK to "half and half go" in negotiations with the EU. The UK will establish a "new equal relationship" with the EU. In addition, whether the United Kingdom will withdraw from the EU Customs Union, May has not made a clear statement, but public opinion is expected that the United Kingdom will soon withdraw from the EU Customs Union and seek a new British-European tariff agreement, thereby regaining access to the EU. The right of foreign countries to negotiate tariffs. Taken together, this “road map†has several characteristics: First, limiting immigration as a more important goal than staying in the European Common Market highlights the concerns of the UK government in responding to the choice of “Brexit†voters, mainly due to immigration issues; Second, it is “ambitious†when describing the relationship between the UK and the EU, the United Kingdom and the world after the British “Brexitâ€. It is necessary for the UK to move forward on foreign trade: On the one hand, the UK can sign free trade agreements with countries outside the EU, such as the United States and India, thus creating a “true global UKâ€. On the other hand, you can negotiate to “maximize access to the common market†Third, there are both threats and pleasing to the EU, which can be described as both hard and soft. At the same time of "hard Brexit", and promised "de-Europe" after the British to join the EU some plans, may make some "appropriate contributions" for EU funding. On the one hand, it warned that the EU may impose a punitive tariff on the UK's “hard Brexitâ€, saying it would be “catastrophic self-destructive behavior†and on the other hand expressed its hope to guarantee the status of EU citizens in the UK. It can be said that the British side's "Button Road Map", which the parties are looking forward to, will show the British people's practical, progressive, experience and doubtful diplomatic style, as well as the utilitarian "suspected European tradition". The British "Button Road Map" clearly shows that the United Kingdom should withdraw from the EU institutions in a "net Brexit" manner, thus recovering a series of lost sovereignty from the EU: Withdrew from the European Common Market and the EU Customs Union, thereby withdrawing the right to negotiate with the countries outside the EU; Withdraw from the European Court of Justice and take back the legislative and judicial powers; Restrict the number of European immigrants entering the UK and regain control of the border. Italy's "Republican" commented that the United Kingdom must "leave the EU, get rid of the single market and get rid of everything." "hard Brexit" affects geometry Public opinion here widely speculates that the EU will try its best to show its strength in the "Brexit" negotiations in the UK, so that in the process of the right-dip in Europe, especially the sensitive time points before the start of this year’s important elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, it is possible The re-emergence of the impact on integration is particularly effective. Eric Harris, director of the Center for European and World Studies at the University of Liverpool, believes that in the face of the UK's demand for a "hard Brexit", the EU will prevent its own further disintegration. She believes that if the UK successfully "Brexit" and benefit from it, it will encourage Germany and France to oppose the EU's right-wing forces and give them an advantage in the general election. She predicted that the EU will not back down in negotiations with the UK. The EU has indeed shown a strong attitude. Officials in the EU's "Brexit" negotiations immediately said after the speech of the United States that the idea of ​​a free trade agreement with the EU on the premise that the immigrants are not allowed to move freely can only be "phantom." If the UK finally leaves the EU in a "net Brexit" way, it is expected to have multiple effects. First, the European integration process will be severely frustrated. The United Kingdom became the first country to secede from the European Union. This is a stimulus for Germany, France and other countries that are also affected by immigration problems and globalization challenges. It will lead to more countries' "centralized" tendency. After the announcement of "hard Brexit" in the UK, Le Pen, one of the leaders of the French far-right National Front and one of the French presidential candidates, praised this. Second, the UK will negotiate free trade agreements with many trading partners outside the EU. Once they leave the EU, these trade agreements will enter into force. Currently, the UK has begun preliminary trade negotiations with countries such as Australia, New Zealand and India. Only a few days before Mei’s speech, the US President-elect Trump, who had not yet taken the oath of office, promised in an interview with The Times that he would sign a “fast and fair trade with the UK within a few weeks of his appointment. The agreement is to help the British "Brexit" become a "great event." Third, in order to ensure its economic competitiveness after “hard Brexit†and prevent financial companies from moving to the European continent, the UK may attract multinational corporations through low taxes and build itself into a “tax havenâ€. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond recently said that becoming a "tax haven" can be a way out after Britain's "Brexit". But the risk of doing so is likely to lead to a trade war between the UK and the EU. Fourth, according to the current schedule, if everything goes well, the UK “Brexit†will be completed by the end of March 2019, but according to the UK’s current goal of signing a free trade agreement with the EU, the UK will seek to negotiate with the EU according to the industry. The way to enter the common market is difficult to complete within the specified time. During this period, the UK will face enormous uncertainties. Morris Obstfeld, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said recently that in the long run, "Brexit" will lead to a decline in potential output in the UK, which will have a negative impact on the economy. "European bridge" status or impact While taking back its sovereignty from the European Union, it also means that the United Kingdom has fully withdrawn from European institutions and thus lost its membership and voice in these institutions. As a result, the status of the UK as a “bridge†between the outside world and Europe will be affected. But it is too early to judge that Britain will lose its "Britain of Europe" status. "British BRICS" concept proponent, former Goldman Sachs chief economist and chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and former UK Treasury Secretary Jim O'Neill said in an interview with a reporter from the "Weekly" Newsweek, if the UK is from Europe as planned With the withdrawal of institutions, the role that the UK can play in some areas of Europe does indeed diminish. He believes that if the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Court of Justice in terms of legal affairs, the United Kingdom will lose its right to speak in these institutions. But in areas such as military and scientific research, the role of the UK in Europe is unlikely to diminish. In the financial services field that is most important to the UK, O'Neill believes that the status of the UK will be affected, and it depends on the outcome of negotiations with the EU, especially the results of the elections in France and Germany and the attitude of the elected leaders. Fashion is early. He even believes that there are already signs that EU leaders have realized that in the financial sector, the importance of Britain to Europe cannot be replaced. Shortly after the publication of May’s “hard Brexit†declaration, European financial institutions responded quickly. According to media reports, HSBC and UBS, the two largest banks in Europe, said that in order to prepare for the risk of Brexit in advance, they will transfer 1,000 jobs in London. Some analysts here believe that even after the "hard Brexit", although London may not remain in the European Common Market, which covers 300 million people, some of its advantages as an international financial center remain strong, such as allowing London to The time difference between “business talks with Asia during the day and business talks with North America at nightâ€, English language advantages, traditional financial service traditions, infrastructure construction, and comprehensive laws and regulations. According to Mei’s plan, “Brexit†will allow the UK to move forward on foreign trade: on the one hand, the United Kingdom can sign free trade agreements with countries outside the EU, such as the United States and India, and on the other hand, it can negotiate to “maximize access to the common marketâ€. In this sense, Britain will embrace the world after Brexit. It should be emphasized that the target of the "Brexit" negotiations announced by the British side is only a unilateral plan. How the UK will eventually "Brexit" will also depend on lengthy and complicated negotiations with the EU, depending on the strength of the UK and Europe and their respective dependence on each other. degree. Just like the comments of the British Independent website, the final decision on how to "Brexit" and "Brexit" after the UK's status can not only be seen in the UK, but also in the EU. Reprinted from the public number: Lookout; Morning Post M&A has been authorized; the original is published in the "Looking" 2017 No. 5. 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